At least 130 million people in Europe, mainly located in the central and eastern parts of the continent, are
set for temperatures exceeding 35C on Monday, according to AFP calculations.
This is down from more than 191 million on Sunday, and maximum temperatures are expected to surpass 30C for over 269 million people across the continent (excluding Turkey), down from 380 million the previous day.
The analysis is based on forecasts from the German meteorological service and 2025 population projections from the Joint Research Centre.
A vast area surrounding the Carpathian Mountains and across the Balkans — including almost all of Hungary, as well as Serbia, Romania, Croatia, Austria, southern Poland, and western Ukraine — is expected to see temperatures climb above 35C on Monday.
Around 30 million people in Italy, particularly in the densely populated Po Valley, are expected to experience similar temperatures, while the southwest of the Iberian peninsula, accustomed to intense heat, will also be affected.
The heat is subsiding in mainland France but health alerts remain in place, with three million people still set for 35C temperatures.
AFP uses a method similar to that of the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard to calculate the figures, cross-referencing population density with the weather forecast model from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) — Germany’s national meteorological service — published at 0300 GMT.
Residents are counted if the model forecasts temperatures above 30C or 35C at their location at any point during the day.
As the model has a resolution of approximately 6.5 km it does not fully capture urban heat-island effects, when cities are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas, David Jablonski of NGO Klimadashboard told AFP.
Consequently, the analysis “likely underestimates the number of people affected in densely populated urban areas”, the organisation notes on its “European Heat Tracker” website.
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