A Below-Normal Forecast, With a Catch
Both NOAA and Colorado State University are projecting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook gives a below-normal season a 55 percent chance, with 8 to 14 named storms expected overall, including 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. CSU’s forecast lands in a similar range, with activity projected at roughly 75 percent of the long-term seasonal average. A strengthening El Nino pattern is driving much of that suppression, producing higher wind shear across the Atlantic that makes it harder for storms to organize and strengthen.
Disaster relief organizations tracking the season are still urging the same preparedness they recommend every year, quieter forecast or not. As one recovery nonprofit put it heading into this season, it only takes one hurricane to make for a difficult year in the place it hits, regardless of how the broader season numbers turn out. Florida in particular has already had an early-August watch area near its coastline, the Carolinas, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, even as the basin has yet to produce its first hurricane of the year.
What Happens to Pest Pressure After a Storm
Homeowners who have lived through a Florida or Georgia hurricane season tend to remember the storm itself and forget what follows it. Standing water left behind by heavy rain and storm surge creates ideal mosquito breeding conditions almost immediately, often producing a visible spike in mosquito activity within a week or two of a storm passing through, well before floodwaters have fully receded.
Rodents present a less obvious but equally real problem. Flooding displaces rodents from their usual burrows and nesting sites, pushing them toward higher, drier ground, which frequently means toward homes. Structural damage from wind and falling debris can also create new entry points into a house at the exact moment rodents are actively searching for shelter, a combination that tends to produce a noticeable uptick in indoor rodent activity in the weeks after a major storm.
Recent Seasons Are the Better Guide Than This One
Florida and Georgia homeowners do not need to look back far for evidence that a single storm can matter more than a seasonal forecast number. Hurricane Ian in 2022 and Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024 all caused significant flooding and structural damage across Florida, and in Helene’s case, into Georgia as well, regardless of how those individual seasons were projected to perform overall. Each storm was followed by the same pattern local officials and pest professionals have come to expect: a sharp rise in mosquito activity from standing water within days, and a slower, several-week climb in rodent and general pest activity as displaced animals and storm-damaged structures created new opportunities for both.
That pattern is why hurricane preparedness conversations in Florida and Georgia tend to stay remarkably consistent from year to year. The storms themselves vary enormously in number, strength, and track. What follows a direct hit does not vary nearly as much.
Why Preparedness Doesn’t Scale Down With the Forecast
A below-normal season number describes the Atlantic basin as a whole, not any individual property. Two named storms had already formed by early August this year, and forecasters were watching a separate area of interest near Florida for potential development, a reminder that a quieter overall season still leaves plenty of room for a single storm to matter enormously to the people directly in its path.
That distinction is part of why hurricane preparedness messaging stays largely the same from year to year regardless of what the seasonal outlook says. The properties that fare best after a storm are typically the ones that treated preparedness as routine rather than something to scale up or down based on how active the season was expected to be.
How Providers Like Mira Home Stay Ready
Mira Home, which serves homeowners across Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, and Utah, has meaningful exposure to hurricane season through its Florida and Georgia service areas specifically, the two states most likely to see direct storm impact in a typical Atlantic season.
Providers like Mira Home generally treat hurricane season as a standing seasonal consideration rather than something to react to only after a storm has already passed through. That includes being positioned to respond to the standing water and rodent displacement that reliably follow a major storm, since the demand for that kind of post-storm treatment tends to spike quickly and briefly in the affected area. Companies like Mira Home operating in both Florida and Georgia are effectively covering the two states where that post-storm pattern shows up most often.
“A quieter forecast doesn’t change how we prepare. Every storm that’s hit Florida the last few years has reminded us that the seasonal number and what actually happens on the ground are two different things.” (John P. Taylor, CEO of Mira Home)
A Homeowner’s Pre-Storm Checklist
Ahead of any storm, clearing gutters and drains reduces the standing water that collects immediately afterward, cutting down on the mosquito breeding window before it starts. Sealing obvious gaps around the foundation, utility lines, and rooflines closes off entry points before displaced rodents go looking for them. Trimming trees and securing loose outdoor items limits the debris that can create new structural openings during high winds.
Scheduling a mosquito and general pest inspection before hurricane season peaks, rather than waiting until after a storm has already created the conditions pests thrive in, is one of the simpler adjustments homeowners in Florida and Georgia can make. A pre-season treatment does not prevent a storm, but it does mean fewer existing entry points and less standing water already in place when a storm’s aftermath starts pushing pests toward higher ground.
None of this guarantees a storm-free season, and this year’s below-normal forecast does not guarantee one either. What consistent preparedness does is shorten the gap between a storm passing through and a home returning to normal, which for most homeowners in Florida and Georgia is really the outcome that matters.
