- France estimates 29,612-34,975 summer heat deaths from 2014 to 2022, about 30,000-35,000 people.
- One third of victims were under age 75, showing significant deaths occur among younger adults, not only the elderly.
- Counting hot days outside heatwaves triples summer heat mortality versus heatwave-only figures; SPF used complex models controlling for other factors including Covid-19.
Between 30,000 and 35,000 people have died from the effects of summer heat in France since 2014, the country’s public health agency said in an estimate released Friday.
Although heat deaths are often associated with the elderly, “a significant proportion — one-third — were of people aged under 75,” Sante Publique France (SPF) found in a study.
France has seen more frequent heatwaves in recent years, especially in 2019 and 2022, as the effects of climate change make the phenomena more frequent — without it being possibly to directly attribute any individual episode to global warming.
Last year alone, SPF tallied 3,000 excess deaths during three separate heatwaves.
But its latest study covers all summer heat periods, rather than just the highest peaks.
“Exposure for the general population on hot days outside heatwaves… is often seen as presenting no health dangers, when in fact it is also associated with increased risk of death,” the authors wrote.
Taking such fatalities into account, the figure for summer heat deaths was between 29,612 and 34,975 in 2014-22 — three times higher than the number for heatwaves alone over the same period.
SPF used complex models to arrive at its figures, with inputs including temperature and death rate fluctuations but also attempting to factor out other causes such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
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