Europe’s most severe heatwave on record is losing ground, although more than 95 million people on the continent are set to face temperatures of at least 35C on Tuesday, according to AFP calculations.
The continent is not used to experiencing such temperatures, especially so early in the summer, and its impact has been severe with excess deaths recorded, schools forced to close and outdoor activities canceled.
Tuesday’s prediction is down from the more than 130 million estimated to have experienced such temperatures on Monday.
Two in 5 people in Europe (excluding Turkiye) are still expected to face temperatures above 30C Tuesday as the heatwave scorches east after smothering western Europe last week.
This heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” in June without climate change, World Weather Attribution group scientists said.
Tuesday’s affected populations are mainly located in the eastern and southern parts of the continent.
In Hungary, almost the entire population is expected to see temperatures reach 35C.
Slovakia, Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia and Croatia are also expected to see the thermometer climb above that threshold.
In Spain and Italy, millions of people are also set to be hit with these high temperatures.
The projected figures, calculated by AFP using a similar methodology to Austrian NGO Klimadashboard, “probably underestimates the number of people affected in densely populated urban areas,” the NGO says on its European Heat Tracker website.
This is because this analysis does not fully capture urban heat-island effects — when cities are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas, David Jablonski of Klimadashboard told AFP.
To produce these figures, AFP combined forecasts issued at 0300 GMT from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Germany’s national weather service, with population-density data from the Joint Research Center.
Residents of a given area are counted if the model forecasts temperatures above 30C or 35C at that location at any point during the day on Tuesday.
