Scientists warn that Earth is overdue for a “superflare” from the Sun that could wipe out satellites and power grids
Earth faces a significant threat from a powerful solar superflare, capable of disabling satellites and power grids, according to scientists, The Telegraph reported.
These superflares, erupting from the Sun’s surface with energy exceeding one octillion joules, are 100 times more powerful than the Carrington Event of 1859. That historic geomagnetic storm disrupted telegraph systems and even ignited fires in offices.
An international team of researchers analyzed data from over 55,000 Sun-like stars observed by NASA’s Kepler space telescope between 2009 and 2013.
“We cannot observe the Sun over thousands of years,” explained Dr. Sami Solanki, director at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS). “Instead, however, we can monitor the behavior of thousands of stars very similar to the Sun over short periods of time. This helps us to estimate how frequently superflares occur.”
The study identified 2,889 superflares on 2,527 stars, indicating that Sun-like stars experience a superflare roughly once every century. This suggests Earth is overdue for such an event.
“We were very surprised that sun-like stars are prone to such frequent superflares,” said D. Valeriy Vasilyev of the MPS.
Previous research estimated superflares occur every 1,000 to 10,000 years. However, the new findings, based on more precise data, suggest they happen more often.
A Potential Global Threat
“The new data are a stark reminder that even the most extreme solar events are part of the Sun’s natural repertoire,” said Dr. Natalie Krivova from the MPS.
If a flare comparable to the Carrington Event were to occur today, researchers estimate a 71% chance of severe impacts on Britain’s power grid. Mobile phone networks could fail, and GPS-dependent systems, including airline operations, might grind to a halt.
Past geomagnetic storms provide a glimpse of such disruptions. In 1989, Quebec experienced a nine-hour power outage, and in 2003, Sweden faced a one-hour blackout. More recently, in May, the Starlink satellite network was degraded by the strongest solar storm in two decades, with the Northern Lights visible across Britain.
Evidence of past superflares has been discovered in ancient tree rings and millennia-old glacial ice, with the most intense believed to have occurred in 775 AD.
Preparing for the Inevitable
Experts stress the importance of forecasting solar flares to mitigate potential damage. Precautionary measures, such as temporarily switching off satellites, could help minimize risks.
The European Space Agency (ESA) is set to launch its Vigil satellite in 2031. Positioned 60 degrees from the Sun, it will provide early warnings of dangerous solar storms. The MPS is contributing to this mission by developing the Polarimetric and Magnetic Imager.
The findings of this study were published in the journal Science.
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