Oil prices tumbled and stock markets rebounded Monday as US President Donald Trump suddenly ordered a halt to strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after claiming “very good” talks with Tehran.
Crude futures plunged more than 14 percent after Trump’s comments on his Truth Social platform, a sharp contrast to his threatening talk over the weekend.
However they later pulled back to trade down around eight percent as Iran denied negotiations had taken place.
“We need to wait for more clarity,” UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP, as European gas prices declined four percent.
Asian and European stock markets had kicked off the new week with sharp losses. However following Asia’s close and Trump’s update, European equities rallied.
The rebound lost some steam after Iranian media said there had been no talks between Tehran and Washington, and London’s FTSE 100 ended the day lower as energy and defence stocks slumped.
Wall Street’s main stock indices were up at least one percent in early afternoon trading.
“It’s incredibly difficult to trade these markets when Trump is swinging between massive escalation and declaring peace/victory… but the market is happy for now that we do not enter a new phase of danger,” said Saxo UK investor strategist, Neil Wilson.
Analyst Patrick O’Hare at Briefing.com said the stock market “is reading between the lines of everything and is sensing an off-ramp moment, sooner rather than later.”
XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said “the oil price is probably the best gauge to measure market sentiment today.”
Brent crude twice dropped more than 10 percent to under $100 per barrel.
“If this truly is an offramp, then we could see a move back towards $90 per barrel for Brent in the coming days,” she said, adding it would not quickly return to the pre-war level of under $70 per barrel as it will take time to repair damaged energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
Ahead of Trump’s update, the International Energy Agency warned of the worst global energy crisis in decades.
Trump on Saturday gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure.
The ultimatum came as the waterway — through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows — remained effectively closed.
Iran warned Hormuz “will be completely closed” should Trump act on his threat to destroy energy infrastructure.
Observers have raised the prospect of surging inflation as oil prices remain far above pre-war levels despite Monday’s plunge.
This in turn could see central banks hike interest rates, potentially triggering a fresh cost-of-living crisis.
The prospect of higher borrowing costs has hammered the price of non-yielding gold but the precious metal recovered some of its losses after Trump’s latest comments, which also reversed the direction of the dollar.
Trump’s latest announcement sent the greenback lower against the euro, British pound and yen.
Yields on 10-year government bonds, which have been surging on inflation concerns, pulled back slightly.
“As government bonds… see yields rise, it makes gold less attractive given that gold pays no interest,” said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club.
“Investors who have made losses elsewhere in volatile markets are selling to cover positions.”
– Key figures at around 1630 GMT –
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 8.0 percent at $103.18 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 7.3 percent at $91.08 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 1.2 percent at 46,142.53 points
New York – S&P 500: UP 1.0 percent at 6,569.50
New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 1.1 percent at 21,877.77
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 9,894.15 (close)
Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.8 percent at 7,726.20 (close)
Frankfurt – DAX: UP 1.2 percent at 22,653.86 (close)
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 3.5 percent at 51,515.49 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 3.5 percent to 24,382.47 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 3.6 percent at 3,813.28 (close)
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1580 from $1.1550 on Friday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3390 from $1.3323
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 158.79 yen from 159.30 yen
Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.50 pence from 86.68 pence
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