One of Latvia’s spy agencies said Thursday that Russia planned to intensify “abuse” of legal proceedings against the Baltic states and other western countries in a possible effort to justify a “potential confrontation against NATO”.
The Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) said in a public report Russia was stepping up its use of “lawfare” against the West and the Baltic countries in particular to promote policies favourable to Moscow and potentially justify attacks.
“Russia can use legal arguments as pretext and justification for intensified aggressive activities or a potential confrontation against NATO,” the report said.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin used the protection of Russian speakers as a pretext to annex Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and launch a full-scale invasion of the pro-Western country in 2022.
The Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, which have sizable Russian-speaking minorities, have long feared they could be targeted by Putin next.
The intelligence service said that Russia planned to sue the Baltic states in the UN International Court of Justice over “the discrimination of Russians and Russian-speakers” living in those countries.
“According to SAB intelligence, Russia has prepared the complaint and is currently preparing to file the case in court,” the report said.
“In the complaint, Russia uses a highly manipulative approach, by selectively interpreting international norms and adapting them to imagined evidence,” the spy service added.
While Russian authorities have long complained about the treatment of Russian speakers in the Baltic countries, such a legal complaint would up the pressure further, the intelligence service said.
“Irrespective of the possible ruling of the case, in Russia’s assessment, the submission of the application would already be serving a purpose,” it said.
“Propaganda would become the foundation for practical action.”
According to the report, Russia has also been studying precedents and legal practices in Iran’s disputes with the West.
The intelligence service said Russian experts had analysed Iran’s 2016 claim in the UN International Court of Justice against the United States and court rulings on US sanctions and frozen Iranian financial assets.
“Russian experts are appealing to countries that, similar to Russia, are subject to restrictions, to carry out joint counter-measures, including establishing a mechanism that would hold those responsible for the introduction of restrictions accountable,” the report said.
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