The United States and Israel may be close allies but they are pursuing divergent goals in confronting shared adversary Iran, experts said, as Tehran and Washington square off in the Middle East.
After threatening to strike Iran over its deadly crackdown on a protest movement that erupted in December, US President Donald Trump now appears to be seeking negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Talks between the two countries are expected to take place on Friday in Oman.
Israel, however, is pursuing an uncompromising stance toward the Islamic republic, and would like to see its clerical leadership toppled, according to experts.
“Israel and Trump share a common enemy, but not exactly the same agenda on Iran,” geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz told AFP.
Were the US to strike Iran, Israel — located around 2,000 kilometres (more than 1,200 miles) away — would be on the front line of any Iranian retaliation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel would not hesitate to respond were Iran to attack.
“If Iran makes the grave mistake of attacking Israel, we will respond with a force that Iran has never seen,” Netanyahu told reporters last month.
On Tuesday, Netanyahu told visiting US envoy Steve Witkoff that the Islamic republic “cannot be trusted”.
Horowitz believes that “Israel is pushing for a lasting weakening, or even the fall of the Iranian regime, with the option of additional strikes if necessary”.
“For Netanyahu, the maximalist objective is clear: regime change or at the very least the complete dismantling of nuclear and missile capabilities,” he said.
Trump, for his part, does not want to “take the risk of a long-lasting war”.
These tactical differences between Israel and the US administration, Horowitz said, “nevertheless create tensions and a certain uncertainty in Israel”, where public opinion appears divided over a potential Israeli strike against Iran.
According to an opinion poll published Tuesday by the Israel Democracy Institute, 50 percent of Israelis would support an attack by Israel against Iran only in retaliation, and 44 percent say they favour military action in coordination with the United States.
Mairav Zonszein, an expert with the International Crisis Group, highlighted the different political incentives at home for Netanyahu and Trump.
She said that Trump has little “to gain domestically from going into a long war with Iran”, whereas “Netanyahu has built his career on the threat of the Iranian nuclear programme and in general the threat that Iran poses”.
– Sworn enemies –
Arch-foes since the proclamation in 1979 of the Islamic republic, which does not recognise Israel’s right to exist, the two countries fought a 12-day war last year.
The conflict was triggered by an unprecedented Israeli attack against Iranian military and nuclear facilities as well as residential areas.
The US joined the offensive by striking three Iranian nuclear sites, before a ceasefire initiated by Trump came into force.
In Israel, the war killed 30 people and caused considerable damage, notably to a hospital and public institutions, including some army bases.
In April 2024, on the sidelines of the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, Iran — an ally of the Palestinian Islamist movement — launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel.
It was in retaliation for a deadly attack on Iran’s Damascus consulate that occurred days before and was blamed on Israel.
Months later on October 1, Iran fired a barrage of 200 missiles at Israel in response to the assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
– Fault lines –
For Israeli reserve general Eitan Ben Eliahou, potential negotiations between the United States and Iran could lead to an agreement, but only under several conditions: an end to Iran’s military nuclear programme and the production of ballistic missiles, as well as “Iranian recognition of Israel’s right to exist”.
“Iran would issue a public statement announcing the abandonment of its intention to destroy Israel and a declaration that Iran will not attack Israel, and in return… the United States and Israel will not attack it,” the former air force commander of Iranian origin told Israeli news website Ynet on Tuesday.
For Zonszein, these conditions are “not realistic”.
“The official position is that Israel would have been happy with a very good deal, but we all know that Israel was against the JCPOA,” she said, referring to a nuclear deal signed under former US president Barack Obama.
“The main divide is that Israel has always favoured military and kinetic action to deal with Iran, and the Trump administration prefers diplomacy.”
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