Oil prices surged and stocks sank Monday after US-Iran peace talks fell apart and Donald Trump announced a blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, adding to fears for energy supplies from the Middle East.
Negotiations in Islamabad at the weekend fell apart with the US delegation — led by Vice President JD Vance — blaming Iran’s refusal to give up its nuclear programme and Tehran hitting out at “maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade”.
The news dealt a blow to hopes for an end to the six-week conflict, which has sent crude prices soaring, pushing inflation up and sending shivers through the global economy.
Oil prices — which tumbled last week after the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire — jumped more than eight percent at one point Monday, with both contracts topping $100 a barrel.
Equities fell, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul, Sydney, Mumbai, Singapore, Taipei and Jakarta well down, though Shanghai edged up.
London, Paris and Frankfurt were also in negative territory.
Shares in Hungary jumped more than three percent after conservative Peter Magyar won a thumping majority in parliamentary elections Sunday, ousting Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had ruled for 16 years.
In a lengthy social media post, President Trump said his goal was to clear the strait of mines and reopen it to all shipping.
But he said Iran must not be allowed to profit from controlling the waterway — through which a fifth of global oil and gas usually passes.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”
He said the blockade would only apply to vessels travelling to or from Iranian ports.
The US military said it would blockade all Iranian Gulf ports on Monday at 1400 GMT, effectively seizing control of maritime traffic.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said its security forces had full control over the strait and warned enemies would be trapped in a “deadly vortex” in case of any “wrong move”.
Iran’s navy chief Shahram Irani called Trump’s threat “ridiculous and funny”, according to state TV.
After the talks — the highest-level meeting between the two sides since the 1979 Islamic revolution — Vance said Washington had made Tehran its “final and best offer,” adding: “We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the rivals had been “inches away” from a deal, writing on X that “Iran engaged with US in good faith to end war”.
But he added “we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade”.
Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Center for International Research at Sciences Po in Paris, warned that a US blockade was “not a minor coercive signal” but would rather be considered an effective resumption of the war.
Malcolm Melville, of Schroders, warned that even if a breakthrough in ending the war is eventually made, prices would likely remain elevated for some time.
“While shipping levels could return to normal quickly, it will take weeks or even months for production levels to return to normal given the 10 million barrels a day of shut-in production and damage to some facilities,” he wrote.
“This should mean that front-month oil prices (i.e. oil for near-term delivery) are unlikely to fall to pre-conflict levels quickly. The uncertainty about when production will return should support prices.”
Still, Saxo Markets’ Charu Chanana added: “It was always a tall order to secure a deal in one sitting given the number of sticking points still on the table, including missiles, nuclear restrictions, proxy dynamics, the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions.
“The fact the talks happened at all matters. There is still a chance negotiations restart, especially with some reports suggesting the two sides were not far apart on at least some points.”
Investors are also keeping an eye on attempts to resolve the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, as Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he was pushing to ensure the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
“We will continue to work to stop this war, to ensure the Israeli withdrawal from all our lands, the return of all the prisoners, to rebuild our destroyed villages and towns, and the safe return of the displaced,” Salam said.
The prospect of the Middle East crisis continuing for the foreseeable future ramped up inflation fears and weighed on gold amid expectations interest rates would be kept elevated.
Data Friday highlighted the impact of the conflict on prices, with the US consumer price index spiking at 3.3 percent in March, its highest since May last year.
– Key figures at around 0810 GMT –
West Texas Intermediate: UP 7.2 percent at $103.55 a barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 7.0 percent at $101.83 a barrel
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.7 percent at 56,502.77 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 25,660.85 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,988.56 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.5 percent at 10,553.59
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1695 from $1.1728 on Friday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3428 from $1.3463
Dollar/yen: UP at 159.64 yen from 159.19 yen
Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.10 pence from 87.11 pence
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