Six months ago, the entire prediction market industry processed about $2 billion in a single month. Now it does more than double that in a single week.
Total notional volume across major prediction market platforms reached $44 billion for the full year of 2025, according to industry tracking data. Kalshi and Polymarket, the two dominant platforms, accounted for roughly 85% to 90% of that total. Weekly trading volumes now regularly exceed $4 billion, and single-day spikes during major events have topped $1.3 billion.
The numbers tell a story that goes well beyond a niche corner of the internet. Prediction markets have crossed into mainstream finance, media, and even geopolitics.
From Political Novelty to Financial Mainstream
Prediction markets first grabbed widespread public attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when Polymarket’s real-time odds became a fixture on cable news networks. But the industry did not slow down after election night. It accelerated.
Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated exchange, saw its valuation double to $11 billion. Polymarket, operating as a decentralized platform, secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. Mass-market brokerages including Robinhood, DraftKings, and FanDuel rolled out their own prediction products, with Robinhood alone reporting an estimated $300 million in annual revenue from event trading.
CNN and CNBC have struck deals to display Kalshi prediction data in their coverage. The Wall Street Journal partnered with Polymarket. Even the Golden Globe Awards featured live Polymarket odds during their broadcast.
What People Are Actually Trading
The range of contracts available on prediction platforms has expanded far beyond elections. According to the DeFi Rate tracker, which monitors real-time volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, sports contracts now dominate daily activity. During the week ending February 15, 2026, sports accounted for 85% of Kalshi’s volume, while Polymarket was more balanced across sports, politics, and crypto.
But the high-dollar markets remain political. The 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominee contracts on Polymarket have each attracted tens of millions in cumulative volume. Federal Reserve interest rate decision markets routinely process more than $40 million per contract cycle. And geopolitical event contracts covering topics from Iran to Venezuela now carry open interest in the millions.
Other active categories include cryptocurrency price predictions, AI company milestones, and weather events. Kalshi hosts more than 237,000 active markets at any given time, while Polymarket runs roughly 29,000.
The Super Bowl Stress Test
The clearest sign of just how large these platforms have become came on February 8, 2026. On Super Bowl Sunday alone, tracked prediction platforms processed $1.34 billion in notional volume across 7.5 million individual transactions. Kalshi handled nearly $872 million of that total.
To put that number in perspective, it took the entire industry a full month to reach $2 billion as recently as August 2025. Super Bowl Sunday did well over half of that in 24 hours.
Volume pulled back in the following week, as expected. Data from DeFi Rate prediction markets showed combined weekly volume settling at $4.3 billion for the week ending February 15, with open interest holding at roughly $780 million split almost evenly between the two platforms.
Why the Growth Is Accelerating
Several factors are pushing prediction markets toward wider adoption.
The first is distribution. Platforms are no longer standalone apps competing for attention. Kalshi contracts are now accessible through Robinhood, bringing prediction trading to millions of existing brokerage customers. DraftKings and FanDuel have introduced their own products across dozens of states, tapping into established sports betting user bases.
The second factor is accuracy. Research tracking forecast quality shows average Brier scores near 0.09 across major platforms, meaning prediction market probabilities have been remarkably well-calibrated. That track record has given newsrooms and institutional investors enough confidence to use these prices as reference points.
The third is the event calendar. The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada starting in June, is expected to be a massive catalyst for prediction volume. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are positioning to capture World Cup trading, with analysts projecting that the tournament could push monthly volumes to record highs. U.S. midterm elections later in the year will add another layer of political contract activity.
The Regulatory Picture
The rapid growth has not come without friction. State gaming authorities in Nevada and Connecticut have issued cease-and-desist orders against Kalshi, arguing that sports event contracts overlap with unlicensed gambling. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has taken a more permissive approach under recent leadership, but the tension between federal and state regulators continues to create uncertainty.
Polymarket’s path has been equally complicated. The platform was forced to shut down in the U.S. in 2022 for operating without a license but has since acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange to re-enter the domestic market. Its global operations remain its primary strength, with more than 335,000 weekly active users trading across geopolitical, economic, and sports contracts.
For traders, the regulatory patchwork means that access to specific contracts can vary depending on where you live and which platform you use. That fragmented environment may eventually consolidate, but for now, prediction markets are operating across a mix of regulated and semi-regulated territory.
What Comes Next
The prediction market industry is heading into a stretch of calendar events that could push volume even higher. The World Cup, midterm primaries, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and ongoing geopolitical developments all create the kind of uncertainty that drives trading activity.
Whether these platforms represent a new form of financial intelligence or a dressed-up version of sports betting depends on who you ask. What is harder to argue with is the money flowing through them. At $44 billion and counting, prediction markets have become too large to dismiss and too accurate to ignore.
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