The World Bank’s chief economist, David Malpass, has warned that Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine could trigger a global recession by driving up the prices of food, energy, and fertilizer.
According to the BBC, he made the remarks while speaking at a business event in the United States on Wednesday.
“As we look at the global GDP, it’s hard right now to see how we avoid a recession… The idea of energy prices doubling is enough to trigger a recession by itself,” he said in the latest warning over the rising risk that the world economy may be set to contract.
The World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast for this year by nearly a full percentage point last month, to 3.2%.
Malpass also stated that many European countries remain overly reliant on Russia for oil and gas.
This is despite Western nations’ plans to reduce their reliance on Russian energy.
He also stated at a virtual event hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce that Russia’s move to reduce gas supplies could cause a “substantial slowdown” in the region.
Higher energy prices, he said, were already weighing on Germany, the largest economy in Europe and the fourth largest in the world, according to the BBC.
Fertilizer, food, and energy shortages are also affecting developing countries, according to the World Bank president.
Malpass also expressed concern about lockdowns in major Chinese cities. Shanghai, he claims, is a financial, manufacturing, and shipping hub “still having ramifications or slowdown impacts on the world”.
“China was already going through some contraction of real estate, so the forecast of China’s growth before Russia’s invasion had already softened substantially for 2022,” he said.
“Then the waves of Covid caused lockdowns which further reduced growth expectations for China.”
