The novel coronavirus pandemic started in December 2019, in China, and ever since then it has spread across the globe. Now, the world is shutting down, schools are on closure, and every other thing seems unusual – all as a result of lockdown. There are over 3 million coronavirus cases, and Over 200 thousand deaths across the world so far. And as nations continue to enforce social distancing and cancel events, we can only hope that the world will get back to normal soon. But, here’s a burning question: when will coronavirus end?
When Will The Coronavirus Pandemic End?
No doubt, it’s uncertain when the coronavirus pandemic will end, as no one can give a precise date. However, some researchers have come up with a machine learning-based analysis to predict when it will end in different countries across the world.
The researchers, at a Data-Driven Innovation Lab at Singapore University, monitor confirmed cases of the coronavirus from different countries of the world. As they get the numbers, they feed them into a machine learning model to estimate the life cycle of the pandemic. By so doing, they get to make predictions as to when the virus will likely end across the world.
With a SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) machine learning algorithm, the researchers work on three different cases of the virus. They utilize the number of susceptible individuals, infected individuals, and the recovered individuals, to give a theoretical analysis of the virus. Let’s have a look at some of their predictions (updated yesterday) on when the virus will end across the world.
Machine Learning-Based Analysis To Predict When Coronavirus Will End
According to the analysis updated on the 30th of April, here are some of the predictions for some countries and the world.
World
The coronavirus pandemic across the world is expected to end (97%) theoretically around May 31. However, the prediction further suggested that it’ll take up to December before the world will see the end of coronavirus.
United States
With the US having total confirmed cases of about 1.1 million and over 133 thousand recovered cases, it’s predicted that its coronavirus pandemic will likely end (97% theoretical) around May 18. However, the country should expect a 100% end of the deadly virus around September 20.
Canada
Canada is expected to see a 97% theoretical end of coronavirus around May 24, according to the analysis. The prediction further says the country will achieve a 100% end of the pandemic around August 27.
Singapore
Also, according to the analysis, Singapore will likely see the end of coronavirus around June 28. However, the country should expect a 97% result around the next coming weeks.
United Arab Emirates
The UAE will likely see the end (97% theoretical) of the coronavirus pandemic around May 21, according to the analysis. However, the virus will end fully in the country around August 15.
Germany
According to the analysis, Germany will likely see the end (100% theoretical) of coronavirus around August 9. But, it should expect a 97% end in the coming weeks.
France
France, with total coronavirus cases of over 167 thousand, is expected to see the end (97%) of the virus around May 7. Furthermore, the analysis says that the country will likely see a 100% theoretical end of COVID-19 around August 10.
Conclusion
Although the researchers make use of daily updated data to predict, there’s a disclaimer that they are only for educational and research purposes. As such, predictions and analysis by the machine learning algorithm should only be taken with a pinch of salt.
Looking beyond the theoretical predictions, it’s uncertain when the coronavirus pandemic will end. And as such, everybody should continue exercising social distancing and other preventive measures as laid down by the WHO.
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