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US to see a full-blown outbreak of Delta variant in a month: Epidemiologist

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If people are not fully vaccinated, the United States will see an explosive outbreak of the Delta Covid variant in a month, according to Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and public health scientist.

“The US has just one month to act before it becomes full blown Delta variant dominant. One month to slow it down. One month to fully vaccinate,” Feigl-Ding said in a series of tweets.

He urged the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to take immediate action to vaccinate Americans.

“But we likely have even less time than that if CDC doesn’t act soon,” Feigl-Ding said.

“If the CDC doesn’t issue new guidelines to stem the growth of #DeltaVariant, which can transmit via merely 5-10 seconds of passive breathing exposure, it will be extremely derelict,” he said.

“The Delta variant is leaps and bounds faster than any other variant known to date. It represents a clear and present danger to the world. This Delta variant surge will not end well for low vaccination areas,” he noted.

Feigl-Ding emphasised on the need for two doses of vaccines and said “1 dose is definitely not enough”.

Concerns about the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 in the United States are growing as President Joe Biden falls short of his July 4 vaccine rollout target and cases explode in the United Kingdom. The highly contagious Delta variant was discovered in India and has since spread to at least 92 countries.

According to the CDC, the variant now accounts for at least 20% of Covid cases in the United States and is expected to take over in a matter of weeks.

In addition to vaccinations, masks must be worn.

Feigl-Ding has urged the CDC to reverse its mask rule, as countries such as Australia and Israel are reinstituting masks in response to the Delta variant threat.

He cited a Queensland health official, who early last week had warned that “5-10 seconds” is all one needs to transmit the Delta variant. It can be a “fleeting moment” of seconds.

Meanwhile, the WHO has stated that being vaccinated may not be sufficient, and that people must continue to wear masks, maintain social distance, and engage in other Covid-appropriate behaviours.

“Israel and now the WHO are both coming out strongly for masks even if fully vaccinated. Israel has 60 per cent people who have received both doses of Pfizer vaccine, yet it knows it needs to reinstate masks because of the new Delta Variant outbreak. The WHO is on the right side of the science this time, better than CDC,” Feigl-Ding said.

“Don’t act slowly against the Delta Variant. Speed matters. You must move quickly or else once Delta hits a critical mass, you will be in trouble and lose control,” he said.

About the author

Brendan Byrne

While studying economics, Brendan found himself comfortably falling down the rabbit hole of restaurant work, ultimately opening a consulting business and working as a private wine buyer. On a whim, he moved to China, and in his first week following a triumphant pub quiz victory, he found himself bleeding on the floor based on his arrogance. The same man who put him there offered him a job lecturing for the University of Wales in various sister universities throughout the Middle Kingdom. While primarily lecturing in descriptive and comparative statistics, Brendan simultaneously earned an Msc in Banking and International Finance from the University of Wales-Bangor. He's presently doing something he hates, respecting French people. Well, two, his wife and her mother in the lovely town of Antigua, Guatemala.




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