A Russian military satellite maneuvered dangerously close to a Western commercial satellite in mid-October 2026. Reuters reported.
The two satellites came within roughly half a mile of each other, raising alarm bells among military space specialists. The encounter was described as one of the closest known approaches made by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low Earth orbit.
The X36 is operated by the Finnish company ICEYE and is a US-registered radar-imaging satellite. The satellite provides Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine, with intelligence and radar imagery.
Emerging Space Threats
Greg Gillinger, a former US Air Force intelligence officer and current space analyst, said that the encounter resembled an attack rehearsal.
The encounter “looks like an attack rehearsal,” said Greg Gillinger.
He noted that this was an example of Russia’s aggressive posture in threatening foreign satellites. He further explained that it is not normally necessary for a spacecraft to close the distance to less than a mile to collect intelligence or interfere electronically with another satellite. Cosmos 2612 had to precisely match its speed and altitude with those of X36 to achieve such a close approach. In Gillinger’s assessment, this could indicate a trial run for physically damaging or disabling the satellite.
Cosmos 2612 is one of a group of six military satellites that Russia launched in April 2026. Space analysts note that pressure on ICEYE-operated satellites had been building for months. It began in May 2026, when Russia positioned four of the newly launched satellites close to X36, subsequently prompting ICEYE to change its satellite’s orbit in response to the nearby Russian spacecraft. Subsequently, during September and October 2026, Russian spacecraft carried out further orbital maneuvers near X36. After this recent incident, Cosmos 2612 moved to a position approximately 250 miles away from X36.
COMSPOC, a space-tracking firm, has reported that two sibling Russian military satellites are moving towards the orbital path of X37, another US-registered satellite operated by ICEYE. Independent analysts claim that these sibling satellites could be positioning themselves to make a similar close approach used to the one previously made near X36.
Western Perspective
Thomas DiNanno, a US Under Secretary of State, condemned this maneuver by the Russian satellite. He said deliberate and dangerous maneuvers of this kind are consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.
Major General Michael Traut, Germany’s space commander, maintained a cautious approach. He acknowledged that the military must prepare for potentially aggressive actions in orbit. However, he also noted that public orbital data cannot establish whether there was an intention to attack. Such maneuvers can be employed for close-up imaging and inspection as well as non-destructive observation.
This encounter marks a broader shift in modern warfare. There is a growing reliance by national militaries on commercial satellite constellations. Since these commercial networks form a vital part of Ukraine’s defense, Russia has warned that Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliation.
