Published in November 1960, a study titled “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026″ argued that humanity would reach its demographic breaking point by 13 November 2026. Written by Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues, the study caused considerable anxiety at the time. People feared that humanity would be squeezed to death, and Earth would run out of space to accommodate them.
Scientists today have debunked these claims. Global birth rates have dramatically slowed down, it is now less than half the rate projected by the study in 1960. Therefore, the 1960 growth model is obsolete and 13 November will be an ordinary day, not an apocalyptic doomsday.
The Doomsday Prediction
Populations grow at a steady rate. However, the 1960 study claimed that developments in technology and medicine would alter the environment to support more life. This would result in the growth of the human population accelerating over time. This concept is known as hyperbolic growth. The paper attracted massive media attention at the time and was covered by mainstream outlets such as Time Magazine.
In simple terms, when the bottom number in a fraction keeps shrinking, the total value increases. In the 1960 study, the curve used to project future population growth showed that denominator in the fraction would drop to zero on November 13, 2026.
The researchers said humans would not starve as agricultural technology would produce enough food. Their concern was that people would be squeezed to death as an infinite number of bodies tried to occupy the limited space on the planet. To prevent this singularity, the study called for timely human intervention.
Reality of the Doomsday Equation
The 1960 study relied on historical population estimates dating back to the Roman Empire. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, the doomsday equation remained accurate as population growth accelerated. However, in 1993, the population growth rate diverged from the study’s projections. Today, scientists say that the global population is expected to peak before declining later in the century.
Ecologists also argue that the study did not take into account basic laws of nature. In nature, populations hit a “carrying capacity” if they grow too quickly. They run out of space and food, causing population growth to crash. Therefore, the concept of an infinite population on a finite planet is scientifically absurd. Before humanity could reach a stage at which bodies are squeezed to death, resource depletion would cause population growth to collapse.
Moreover, the 1960 study assumed that humans would reproduce faster as technology improved. In the modern era, birth rates have declined alongside technological and socioeconomic development. Access to healthcare and higher education for women has changed family sizes over time.
Another interesting aspect of the 1960 study is the background of Heinz von Foerster himself. Before becoming a professor, he worked as a professional stage magician. He understood the art of showmanship and misdirection. Interestingly, the date he identified, 13 November 2026, would also be his 150th birthday if he were alive.
