California’s earthquake risk is back in the spotlight after geophysicist Stefan Burns warned that the state could face a major seismic event in the coming months, following a powerful magnitude 7.4 earthquake in western Colombia on August 10.
Burns, whose comments were highlighted by the New York Post and other outlets, argued that the Colombia quake may have altered stress patterns across distant fault systems and placed the U.S. West Coast, particularly Southern California, at greater risk. He has pointed to the San Andreas and Garlock faults as areas of concern and suggested the next six to 12 months could be a period worth watching.
The Colombia earthquake struck about 5 kilometers south of San José del Palmar at a depth of roughly 110 kilometers, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The event produced severe shaking and was classified by the agency as a significant earthquake.
Burns has also cited recent California tremors and historical earthquake sequences as reasons for heightened attention. In July, two earthquakes above magnitude 4 struck near the southern San Andreas-Garlock region, prompting debate over whether the activity carried any broader significance.
However, established earthquake science does not support precise predictions about when a major quake will strike. The USGS says neither it nor other scientists can currently predict a major earthquake by specifying its time, location and magnitude. Scientists instead calculate long-term probabilities and use fault histories, seismic activity and hazard models to estimate regional risk.
That distinction is important. California is unquestionably an earthquake-prone region, with several active fault systems capable of producing destructive shaking. But a warning that a large earthquake could occur within a specific window should not be treated as a confirmed forecast. California’s official UCERF3 forecast instead estimates earthquake probabilities over periods spanning decades.
The renewed attention nevertheless serves as another reminder of California’s long-term seismic exposure. The San Andreas remains among the state’s best-known fault systems, and scientists continue studying fault behavior to better understand where damaging shaking is most likely.
For Californians, the scientific message remains consistent: another damaging earthquake is possible, but exactly when it will happen remains impossible to know.
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