Russia could launch a limited attack on a NATO country in the coming months, Denmark’s defence intelligence service has warned, while stressing that the risk remains low.
The agency’s new assessment describes that risk as growing. It says Moscow could fire missiles or drones at NATO infrastructure used to support Ukraine, or send a small number of troops into a neighboring member state. Intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said such an incursion might be presented as an effort to protect Russian minorities.
A test of NATO’s response
Ahrenkiel said the purpose of a limited attack would be to divide NATO, rather than seize a country. The Danish service warned that Moscow might act if it believed alliance members would fail to respond together, particularly if it doubted US support for its European allies.
That would put NATO’s Article 5 commitment to collective defense under pressure. But the report draws a distinction between a limited attack and a wider invasion: it considers an outright Russian invasion of a member state highly unlikely, though it cannot rule one out. The assessment is a warning about what could happen, not a claim that an attack has been ordered.
The service also expects Russia to intensify hybrid attacks against Western countries over the coming months. It warned that cyberattacks could disrupt essential services, while sabotage could carry a high risk of casualties. Those operations could have greater consequences than incidents seen previously, according to the assessment.
Polish fire adds to concern
The report was released shortly after a fire damaged a Starlink satellite station in Poland. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski called the blaze an act of sabotage and said it disrupted internet access for several institutions, including Ukraine’s military. Polish authorities have not established who was responsible, and the fire has not been attributed to Russia.
NATO’s top commander, US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, said the alliance was increasing intelligence sharing in response to sabotage and other concerning incidents. He said members should remain calm and confident in their ability to handle threats.
Russia rejects the Danish assessment. Its embassy in Denmark said the warning lacked credible evidence and accused Western governments of increasing tensions over Ukraine. Moscow has also denied involvement in suspected sabotage operations in NATO countries.
